11th May, 2010

The Knopfler Analogy

Mark Knopfler is on tour over here and your correspondent went to see him perform in Portland, Oregon.  It was a great show, the crowd loved it and a good time was had by all.  Knopfler is in his early sixties and, as you might imagine, the vast majority of the audience who have followed him for years are all “Baby Boomers” as well.  From a distance Knopfler bears a striking resemblance to an elder statesman in our industry.  This, together with the age and loyalty of the audience, led to the analogy that this event captured the essence of our current decline.

Substitute Knopfler for the visible leaders in our industry because most of them are around his age, then substitute his audience for those who attend marine trade shows and conferences and you get a similar effect.  The majority of today’s industry leaders, members and boat owners are “Baby Boomers”.  The good news is that because we are all “Boomers” each of us understands where the other is coming from and how the industry has changed over time.  The bad news is that all of us will exit the industry around the same time.

Here’s the real catch – “Generation X” (birth dates 1965 – 1976) is the group following the “Boomers” and they are reaching or have reached their maximum earning potential.  “Generation X” is also 35% smaller.  There are 51 million of them versus 78 million “Boomers” that were around on July 1, 2005 according to the Census Bureau.  All manner of reasons are being given for the decline of boat sales today but the drop in buying population numbers is not one of them.

If buying population numbers are a key indicator then this industry is in decline until the “Millennials” (born 1977 – 1998) hit their stride – there are 75 million of them!

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